Japan has been stagnant for 35 years, and it's now "China's moment."

Author | Lingnan Renyujiji

Editor | Li Xiaotian

The "beauty of economic upswing" has become a popular phrase in the first half of this year. With a strong sense of nostalgia for the vibrant past, it has struck a chord with countless young people.

In Q1 of 2025, Japan's GDP declined again. This means that since the bursting of Japan's bubble economy in 1989, the economy has been stagnant for as long as 35 years. During this period, Japan's share of the global GDP dropped from about 15.3% in 1989[1] to 4.18% in 2022. In terms of total GDP, Japan, once ranked second in the world, was surpassed by China in 2010 and Germany in 2023, and has now dropped to the fourth place globally.

Interestingly, while Japan's economy continues to be weak, many emerging Chinese e-commerce companies are starting to set their sights on this "disappointing land". On June 30th, TikTok announced the launch of TikTok Shop in Japan, officially launching the shopping function and allowing sellers to enter this third-largest e-commerce market in the world (according to Statista Market Insights data, Japan ranks third globally with a market performance of $169 billion). In addition, Temu, TAO (under Alibaba), and JD.com's Japanese website entered the Japanese market between 2023 and 2024, and SHEIN also launched in Japan at the end of 2020.

Caption: Thanks for the collaboration of Tencent Yuanbao.

If the "beauty of economic upswing" is an aesthetic feature full of hope and forward momentum, then during the past "lost 35 years", Japanese young people chose to lie flat, downgraded their consumption, lived in small spaces, and didn't have children. They have long been deprived of the "beauty" and are in a state of "hopelessness".

As we enter 2025, the trend of Japan's sluggish economy has become even more prominent. Recently, in the draft of the "Basic Policies for Economic and Fiscal Management and Reform" announced by the Japanese government, the word "risk" appeared 18 times (including in the table of contents), with a significantly higher frequency than in previous years, reflecting the Japanese government's concerns about the economic situation.

So why are Chinese e-commerce platforms targeting the Japanese market at this moment? Is there a structural opportunity emerging in the e-commerce sector of the weak Japanese market? Can the consumption downgrade in the Japanese market bring new possibilities for Chinese products?

It's worth mentioning that despite being an East Asian society, the Japanese market is highly unique. On the one hand, the Japanese yen is the only non-Western sovereign currency among the world's top three international reserve currencies. At the same time, Japan is the only developed economy outside the United States with a population of over 100 million (with a total population of 123.44 million in March 2025, according to the official website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs), making it a "quasi-great power" market.

However, in developed Japan, some habits seem outdated. For example, cash is still the main payment method, and the popularity of electric vehicles is low. Although the sales of Japanese e-commerce are expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 5.2% in the past four years (according to GlobalData), the e-commerce penetration rate is still less than 10%, and the offline retail industry still has unparalleled advantages, which is completely different from the rapid development of e-commerce in the Chinese market.

Mount Fuji

This is a complex and contradictory developed economy. In the book *The Chrysanthemum and the Sword*, the national characteristics of the Japanese people are described as "loving beauty but being warlike, respecting etiquette but being belligerent, being conservative but fond of novelty, being docile but stubborn". In terms of consumption, this "contradiction" can also be seen. Japanese consumers are known for being strict and picky, and the Japanese market is considered the "hardest to please".

In the seemingly "slow" Japan, Japanese brands were recognized by global consumers during the Japanese economic miracle period (from the 1950s to the end of the 1980s) for their labels such as "excellence", "reliability and durability", and "craftsman spirit". In 1989, before the bursting of the bubble economy, Japan's outward direct investment reached $67.5 billion, making it the world's largest outward direct investor that year. Japan practiced globalization as early as 30 years ago.

In the process of writing this article, Xiaguang She uses the present as an anchor point to observe the current situation of Japan's macroeconomy and the market opportunities it brings to Chinese businesses. Through in - depth observation of the changes in the horizontal timeline and the uniqueness of the vertical market, we hope to get a comprehensive understanding. As we navigate between the "fast" and "slow" in Japan, we find that this may be the best interpretation of the market where "slow is fast" and the best place for patient capital.

01 After Tokyo's young people "flee the city", how can e-commerce take over the future of e-commerce consumption?

For the Japanese, offline consumption is a form of connection.

In the neighborhood, the owners of the regular community supermarkets and vegetable shops (yaoya) will recommend seasonal ingredients and give away side dishes. In well - established department stores like Takashimaya, the sales staff can remember the preferences of regular customers and provide personalized services. During festivals, there is also the "fukubukuro culture", where they select the packaging and attach a hand - written card. While shopping, people can have a casual chat, which not only completes social interaction but also allows them to enjoy the process of comparison and selection. The sense of ritual and sincerity are emotional transmissions that are difficult to replace online.

For the Japanese, shopping is a form of social leisure.

Even the service is highly praised. When shopping in a mall, the salesperson always maintains an appropriate sense of distance. When you enter the store, they softly say "いらっしゃいませ" (Welcome), and then they don't constantly promote products but respect the consumer's space and quietly return to their position. If the customer needs help, they will appear in time, dutifully introduce the products, and meet the customer's needs. Even if you don't buy anything in the end, they will smile, bow, and sincerely say, "Thank you for your visit." If you make a purchase decision, you will get a neatly packaged product, and before you leave, they will bow deeply again.

There is a very core concept in Japanese culture called 「おもてなし」 (Omotenashi), which is usually translated as "hospitality". The feelings and connections that consumers can get from offline consumption in Japan are a kind of tenderness that is unattainable online.

Surveys show that the ability to directly contact and purchase products and enjoy the service of sales staff are important reasons for Japanese consumers to choose offline shopping.

According to the statistics of the Teikoku Databank, as of September 2024, there are about 45,000 century - old stores in Japan, ranking first in the world, and it is expected that about 2,000 more will be added this year. The long - established offline retail industry in Japan has created an almost perfect offline ecosystem. In cities like Tokyo and Osaka, the TOD model (arranging residential areas, commercial areas, and office facilities around subway lines) has developed to an almost extreme level. For example, near Tokyo's Shibuya Station, the underground passages connect multiple commercial circles such as Tokyu and Seibu, and there are also a large number of residential areas nearby. People can meet all their daily needs within a one - kilometer walking distance.

Representative department store giants such as Mitsukoshi (founded in 1673) and Daimaru (founded in 1717) have histories of over 300 years. It is reported that the daily traffic of Tokyo Daimaru Department Store reaches 80,000 people, the annual scale of the fukubukuro economy is 30 billion yen, and the gift - wrapping service, which charges 10% of the product price, is still in short supply. For high - net - worth individuals as well as corporate and government customers, large Japanese department stores have also introduced the "gaisho" system, providing detailed personalized off - site VIP services.

The prosperity of offline consumption is also related to Japan's high degree of aging. According to the 2020 statistics in Japan, there are 36.25 million people over 65 years old, accounting for 29.3% of the total population, and this proportion will continue to increase. Before Japan's "lost generation", the generation that grew up in the 40 years after World War II and rose rapidly with Japan's economic take - off is called the "baby - boom generation". This group of people laid a solid foundation for many well - known Japanese companies, and they have wealth and话语权.

Analysis data source: WeChat public account: Jifeng Notes

In addition, due to Japan's "seniority - based system" (Nenkō Joretsu), a personnel management system that determines salaries, benefits, and promotion paths based on employees' seniority (age, length of service, education, etc.), about 49% of the salary is determined by seniority factors such as length of service and education, and 47% is related to the position.[2]

The longer the length of service, the higher the basic salary and seniority allowance. The year - end bonus also increases with seniority. The seniority - based system relies on the lifetime employment system to ensure long - term employment of employees. If an employee changes jobs, their length of service will be reset to zero, resulting in a significant reduction in income (for example, a 35 - year - old who changes jobs may see their annual salary decrease by 1.5 - 2 million yen), which strengthens employee stability.

The "seniority - based system", where the longer one works, the higher the position and salary, has locked in more than 60% of the wealth in Japanese society. Therefore, compared with the "lost generation", the "baby - boom generation" has a relatively high disposable income and controls the economic discourse power in Japan.

A clear example is that convenience stores in Japan are highly developed. In 2021, the number of convenience stores reached a peak of 55,950, with a very high density (one store for every 2,253 people on average). This is very suitable for the elderly with limited mobility. Convenience stores that can be easily found within 500 meters of home can not only meet daily immediate needs (such as 24 - hour operation and sales staff guidance) but also serve as a "community service center" for the Japanese. They can withdraw money, provide life services such as ticketing and bill payment, and offer home - delivery services.

Online shopping is a strange concept for this group. They are afraid of mobile payment and prefer "face - to - face cash transactions", feeling that it is safer. According to the data of the People's Bank of China, the mobile payment usage rate of people over 60 years old is only 47.8%, and the acceptance rate of Japanese elderly people for electronic payments such as PayPay is even lower than 25% (according to a LINE survey).

Where the main consumer power lies determines the form of trade. Therefore, it is not surprising that Japan's offline retail industry has unparalleled advantages.

The key turning point came after the pandemic. According to Ravi Sharma, the chief analyst of banking and payments at GlobalData: "Thanks to the high penetration rate of mobile and online platforms and consumers' strong preference for online transactions, the Japanese e - commerce market has achieved sustainable growth in the past five years. Consumers are increasingly shifting from physical - store shopping to online shopping. E - commerce is one of the few sectors that maintained positive growth even during the COVID - 19 pandemic." The overseas data research institution Mordor Intelligence also predicts that from 2025 to 2030, the compound annual growth rate of the Japanese e - commerce market will reach 14.3%.

During the pandemic, the online consumption method of staying at home promoted the development of Japanese e - commerce, and some Japanese people began to try online shopping. In the later stage of the pandemic, with the promotion of the government, the upgrading of e - commerce infrastructure, and the trend of remote work, the habit of online consumption was retained by some Japanese consumers and became a supplement to the original "prosperous offline" situation in Japan.

Among them, the most notable contributing factor is the "return - to - hometown trend" of Japanese young people. That is, after the pandemic, the trend of Japanese young people returning to their hometowns and the trend of remote work are obvious. Especially in 2023 - 2024, the number of people moving out of Tokyo exceeded the number of people moving in for consecutive years, with young people in their twenties and thirties being the main force.

Miura Manabu, a Japanese social consumption research scholar, said in an interview: "Due to the COVID - 19 pandemic, the number of people moving from Tokyo to suburbs, rural areas, and local cities is increasing. In the past six months, more people have moved out of Tokyo's 23 wards than have moved in. The reason for the population increase in Tokyo in the past 20 years is that more tower apartments have been built in the city center, and many wealthy people live there because they don't want to commute from the suburbs, which takes too much time. But since the outbreak of the COVID - 19 pandemic, some companies have allowed employees to work from home, and more and more people are considering leaving the city and moving to places with lower rent and living costs, no longer paying for expensive housing.

Tokyo is indeed very attractive, but you don't have to live here every day. You can just go to e - commerce websites for general consumption. Tokyo has a strong 'cultural dominance', but you can still enjoy it by going there three days a month. In rural areas, you can buy a spacious second - hand house for less than 5 million yen (about 313,000 yuan), and the natural scenery is beautiful, which is very suitable for families with children. More and more young people naturally think that there is no need to live in Tokyo."

In addition, Japanese society presents an olive - shaped structure dominated by the middle class. In the 1970s - 1980s, about 90% of the Japanese people considered themselves part of the "middle class", and the Gini coefficient was as low as 0.349 (in 1980), indicating a very small gap between the rich and the poor. Since the 1960s, during the 30 - year period of rapid economic development, Japan has achieved the integration of urban and rural residents' medical insurance and pension systems. That is to say, regardless of whether one lives in Tokyo or Hokkaido, whether one is the prime minister or a farmer, the medical insurance and pension standards for every Japanese citizen are the same.

Data source: How much money does the middle class need to enter the wealthy class in Japan, *Chengzhu Overseas*

Regarding whether there is a difference in the living experience between big cities and rural areas, Zhou Yang, the chairman and CEO of the Chinese branch of Japan's Rakuten Group, said: "In terms of the convenience of life, there is not much difference between rural areas and cities. In rural Japan, you can still drink very good coffee, including coffee from the top 50 coffee shops in Asia. There is not much difference from big cities."

Young people who return to rural areas still need the "charm of Tokyo", and the development of e - commerce can meet these needs remotely, which makes more people maintain the habit of online shopping after the pandemic. So, what about the future?

02 When the shrinking Japanese middle class meets Made in China: The cross - border opportunities for the king of affordable alternatives

With an e - commerce penetration rate of less than 10%, the Japanese market still has a lot of room for growth compared with China and the United States. The 1.5 - fold growth rate in the past five years also shows the considerable growth prospects of the Japanese e - commerce market. It can be said that there are significant structural opportunities in the current Japanese market. The combination of "low penetration + high growth" in e - commerce means that the incremental space far exceeds the stock competition.

In Zhou Yang's view, the Japanese Rakuten market is a "blue ocean" for Chinese merchants. "In the past 25 years of development, the total number of stores on our platform is only more than 50,000. We encourage merchants to operate their own brands rather than engage in low - price competition. For sellers, it is a very 'un - competitive' environment, which is a characteristic of the blue - ocean market."

Opportunities exist, but are they opportunities for Chinese merchants?

First, look at the advantages. One is the world - class advantages accumulated by China's supply chain over the years. If we look at the supply chains of leading enterprises in various industries in Japan, it is not difficult to find that the Chinese market has always been the core production base for Japanese leading enterprises. That is to say, there is almost no difference between the supply chains of Japanese products and Chinese products.

Crudely listed by Xiaguang She

Second, the current consumption trend in Japan clearly shows a tendency towards "low - price and high - quality" products. Many Japanese market practitioners believe that Chinese products have a crushing advantage in terms of cost - effectiveness and iteration speed, which can well adapt to this consumption trend and maximize our competitiveness.

We can also see the tendency of consumption downgrade in Japan. For example, office workers choose second - hand suits for work, and the business in second - hand stores is booming. After 8 p.m., the number of people in the supermarket discount area starts to increase, and the 500 - yen (about 25 - yuan) bento in convenience stores has become a staple for workers.

For a long time, the middle class in Japan has been shrinking. After the bubble economy, the middle class has faced various problems such as rising housing and education costs while their wages have remained stagnant for a long time. *The Japan Times* uses two figures to outline this trend: In 1996, the median annual income of Japanese households was 5.5 million yen, while in 2021, this figure dropped to about 4.4 million yen. Professor Takehisa Sasazaki of Waseda University and researcher Yoko Takahashi of the Japan Institute for Labour Policy and Training divided Japanese society into four classes: the poor class, the low - income class, the middle class, and the high - income class. Through research, they found that in 1985, the proportion of the middle class in Japanese society was 63.9%, and the proportion of the high - income class was 7.4%. In 2018, the proportion of the middle class was 58.1%, and the proportion of the high - income class rose to 10.3%.

The pandemic has accelerated the shrinking process. As reported in *Global Times*, an employee in the real - estate industry, who is over 40 years old, saw his income reduced by one - third during the COVID - 19 pandemic. Similarly, the annual salary of the manager of a men's clothing chain store dropped from 6 million yen to 4.5 million yen during the pandemic.

Due to their picky nature, the Japanese pursue high - quality products but are also price - sensitive, trying to save every penny. Therefore, high - cost - effective products from the Chinese market may have the opportunity to become the first choice for affordable alternatives.

More importantly, after years of operation of many Chinese enterprises in the Japanese market, the Japanese consumers' awareness of Chinese brands has significantly increased in recent years.

There are already cases where Chinese brands have filled the gaps where Japanese enterprises have failed to meet the demand. For example, the Chinese mobile energy - storage brand Ecoflow launched the EcoFlow RIVER on the Japanese crowdfunding platform Makuake in 2020, raising more than 500 million yen and breaking the Japanese record at that time. Japan is an area prone to earthquakes and typhoons (about 1,500 times a year on average). Ecoflow positioned its products as "essential household disaster - prevention items", which met the rigid demand for emergency power supply in local families. In addition, the camping culture is popular in Japan, and portable power sources are almost standard equipment in RV parks, which also promotes the demand for mobile energy storage.

Ecoflow discovered the blue ocean of demand in the Japanese market, used its supply - chain advantages to produce high - cost - effective products that met consumers' needs, and quickly occupied the market share, filling the gap in this market. Another Chinese brand that discovered the blue ocean of demand is the smart - home brand SwitchBot. In the Japanese market, where there are many traditional home - appliance giants (such as Sony, Panasonic, and Toshiba), local consumers usually have high brand loyalty, and Japanese users are more cautious when buying high - tech products. However, according to the prospectus of Woan, the parent company of SwitchBot, about 60% of its revenue comes from Japan.

SwitchBot entered the Japanese market through an innovative "retrofit - style" intelligent upgrade solution for devices. For example, its smart switch supports the IFTTT service (If This Then That, an automated service platform. Through IFTTT, users can connect triggers and products from different brands to achieve cross - brand automation.

For example, if a user's home is connected to a smart curtain of brand A and a smart light bulb of brand B, and both brands support the IFTTT service, the user can use this platform to achieve the effect that when the curtain of brand A is pulled, the light bulb of brand B automatically turns off). It can be pasted next to any switch to achieve remote control, which means that the product has a very high installation flexibility and does not damage the structure of the object being used, thus laying the concept of a "non - invasive retrofit" product.

With a deep understanding of the Japanese living scenarios and social culture, SwitchBot used innovation to quickly enter the market by making low - cost and painless upgrades in small aspects.

Zhou Yang told Xiaguang She: "'High cost - effectiveness' and 'high - tech innovation' may roughly summarize the Japanese consumers' perception of Chinese brands. The Japanese e - commerce market is an incremental market, and the growth trend is first and foremost the biggest opportunity. Secondly, with the improvement of cross - border e - commerce - related systems and infrastructure, including the development of AI technology, cross - border e - commerce may become more and more 'pure', and good ideas and products may be more easily noticed.

In terms of product categories, 3C electronics and home appliances seem to have taken the lead in establishing trust with Japanese consumers. Some products for new consumption scenarios, such as IoT products, are also rapidly representing Made in China and occupying market share in Japan due to the lack of local products. Generally speaking, regardless of the category, enterprises with high - quality products and innovation capabilities are more likely to enter the Japanese market."

In addition to 3C products, some beauty - industry researchers also said that the brand - building trend of Chinese beauty products is also the key to entering the Japanese market. According to 2023 data, the per - capita consumption expenditure on cosmetics in Japan is 414 yuan (about four times that of China)[3]. Higher consumption ability means more room for brand premium.

For example, Florasis entered the Japanese market through a series of marketing campaigns on social media, with KOLs, and using Chinese - style aesthetics. Currently, products such as its Mongolian lip veil and Yurongsha powder compact can achieve higher premiums in Japan, indicating brand recognition. In 2024, Japan accounted for 40% of Florasis' total overseas revenue, making it the largest overseas market.

However, regardless of the product category, Chinese enterprises have common advantages when entering the Japanese market. Chinese enterprises innovate and iterate much more rapidly than Japanese enterprises and even enterprises worldwide. Moreover, the greater charm lies in that although the Japanese market is difficult to penetrate, compared with other markets, it is not as picky. Using Japan as a springboard, Chinese brands can be regarded as "Japanese - like" and more easily create international influence.

In summary, in Japan, where offline trade is developed, the growth potential of online channels, the trend of low - price and high - quality products, and the increasing recognition of Chinese brands provide opportunities for Chinese merchants who want to test the waters in the Japanese market. However, Japan is not in a cold winter; spring is just around the corner. For now, the ambition to achieve rapid growth in the Japanese market remains a distant hope.

03 Japan is a representative market for patient capital

Is Japan really not competitive? Not really. It's just that Japanese enterprises compete in different ways.

Due to their high - level control of details, Japanese enterprises usually follow a high degree of process - based and standardized operations. Zheng Ge, an overseas student who has been studying in Japan since junior high school, shared with Xiaguang She: "I worked part - time at a chain tonkatsu restaurant, Katsudon - den, in Tokyo during high school. They gave us a thick manual for training, including details such as the dressing code before entering the store, how to wash hands after entering, and how to marinate different kinds of meat. It had pictures and text, and every step was described in great detail."

In the Japanese business environment, when it comes to the choice between short - term interests and long - term operation, the latter always wins. The conservatism of the Japanese market (long decision - making cycle and high brand loyalty) requires enterprises to abandon the pursuit of short - term scale and focus on product refinement and trust accumulation. If an enterprise pursues immediate results in the short term, it is likely not to achieve what it wants.

In the view of Japanese enterprises, price wars are a form of "suicidal competition", and "differentiation" is the foundation for an enterprise's survival. The competition is not about price but about innovation and quality. If you walk along Kiyomizu - zaka in Kyoto, Japan, you will find that almost no two wagashi (Japanese sweets) shops will undercut each other's prices to grab business. They build long - term relationships with customers through products, services, and culture and win the market through trust rather than short - term low - price sales.

So, when Japanese consumers' wallets become thinner, will they become more price - conscious? Where is the balance between price advantage and the pursuit of high - quality products?

Dotonbori, Japan

Matsui Chuzo, the most famous CEO of Muji, the most representative Japanese brand, wrote in his book *Decoding Muji* that Muji's philosophy is "reasonably cheap" and "just right". It points out that "cheap" and "high - quality" are not in conflict. They aim to produce products with the same quality as well - known brands but at a 30% lower price. Costs can be saved in "unnecessary places", such as not relying on brand and packaging when choosing products. This also reflects another kind of lifestyle and a rational choice in the overall "hopeless" atmosphere in Japan.

Japanese consumers do not need overly fancy products. They need products that target the largest consumer group and show attention to detail and service. Only products that meet these two requirements are competitive. They are really hard to please.

Not engaging in price wars, seemingly "slow", is actually another form of "fast".

So, how long does the period of patience need to be? Zhou Yang gave an estimated figure: "At least one year, which is already a long time for Chinese merchants."

In addition, even if you want to be fast, you can't be fast in the Japanese market. Japanese consumers are well - known for being extremely picky. Their online shopping behavior also shows a highly unified characteristic of "research - based consumption". They will fully research product information, make full use of consumer reviews and Q&A, and are very cautious when making consumption decisions.

Even social media promotion is slow. The information - receiving path of the Japanese is often active, slow, and self - initiated. Therefore, social media is more of a relationship field. In Japan, "visibility" is the result of slow - burning trust. It's not "believe because it's popular" but "see because you believe".

For example, Florasis, despite its "Eastern aesthetics" feature, took as long as five years from its launch on Amazon Japan in 2021 to opening its first store in Ginza in 2025. During this period, it held the "Eastern Makeup Challenge", cooperated with the Japanese drama *Animals*, and worked with Japanese makeup artist Hiro Odagiri.

The highly cautious consumption habits of Japanese consumers bring benefits to sellers. The average return rate of e - commerce is only 5% - 10%, which is a promising figure for cross - border sellers. In addition, the most prominent feature of Japanese e - commerce consumers' behavior is "high loyalty". Once they recognize a brand's products, they will show a very high degree of stickiness and high probability of repeat purchases. This is very different from the domestic e - commerce market in China. In the domestic market, many digital means have been developed to promote user repurchase, while in the Japanese market, as long as the pre - sales product education is done well, maintaining a long - term relationship with consumers may be more natural.

Another factor that limits the development speed of Japanese e - commerce is the lack of commercial infrastructure, mainly in two aspects: logistics and payment.

In terms of logistics, the low efficiency of long - distance transportation, the last - mile delivery problem, and the high labor cost due to the shortage of labor in Japan will all affect the shopping experience of Japanese consumers.

In the analysis of the WeChat public account Jifeng Notes, it is pointed out that the long - distance transportation efficiency in Japan is low. Japan has a long and narrow territory with many mountains, and the transportation route planning is complex. The land - transportation cost from Tokyo to Osaka is 20% - 30% higher than that in the Yangtze River Delta region in China for the same distance. The warehouse rental in core cities such as Tokyo and Osaka is more than twice that of similar warehouses in Shanghai. In the last - mile delivery, there are a large number of single - family houses in Japan, and 70% of residential areas are located on narrow streets, where large trucks cannot enter. Small electric vehicles have to make multiple round - trips, resulting in the last - mile cost accounting for 10% - 15% of the product price (the corresponding figure in China is 5% - 8%). The labor shortage in Japan is exacerbated by the aging population. People over 60 years old account for 22% of logistics practitioners, further increasing the overall labor cost.

Analysis data source: WeChat public account: Jifeng Notes

In addition, the top five logistics and distribution companies (Nippon Express, Japan Post, Yamato Transport, Sagawa Express, and Kintetsu) monopolize 80% of the market share, but their systems are not compatible with each other, and the data openness is low, which also increases the difficulty.

If users are not satisfied with the goods they receive, they have to bear the full return cost in Japan. The *Consumer Contract Act* in Japan has strict requirements for e - commerce returns and exchanges. Consumers have to pay the return shipping fee themselves. Compared with the after - sales service experience in Japanese offline department stores, the online after - sales experience has no advantages at all.

At this moment, the phased bonus in terms of timing is that since the Fed started aggressive interest - rate hikes in 2022, the Japanese yen has been continuously depreciating. In May 2024, the US dollar to yen exchange rate exceeded 160, reaching a new low since 1986. The low exchange rate of the yen means a reduction in marketing, logistics, operation, and warehousing costs.

In terms of payment, "The QR code has been promoted in Japan for 10 years, but few people use it," an e - commerce practitioner complained to Xiaguang She. In the Japanese market, there is no synergy among consumers, the financial system, and enterprises. For example, there are many incompatible QR - code payment systems in Japan (PayPay, LINE Pay, Alipay), scanning codes is very inconvenient, and the handling fee is as high as 3% - 5% (less than 1% in China).

Analysis data source: WeChat public account: Jifeng Notes

Japan is a special blue ocean. "The high compliance threshold and the challenge of cultural adaptation are also objective difficulties in the Japanese market. For example, in the Rakuten market, merchants need to have high - quality products and meet relatively strict compliance certifications. At the same time, Japanese consumers are often very cautious when facing new products or brands. Therefore, in store operation, it is necessary to have talents who are proficient in the Japanese language and culture to effectively communicate with Japanese consumers and provide high - quality services," Zhou Yang said.

Currently, emerging Chinese e - commerce platforms are gradually entering the Japanese market as structural changes occur, which is a tentative step. Most practitioners said that e - commerce opportunities emerged after the pandemic, and emerging e - commerce platforms mean an additional shopping channel. However, for platforms and merchants who want to enter the Japanese market, it is a long - term opportunity that requires a clear understanding of a longer accompanying period.

The WeChat public account "Jing Shuo Japan" mentioned that there are 1 million overseas Chinese and Chinese students in Japan, especially the "new Chinese" who have come to Japan to study, work, and live in recent years. The largest customer group of Temu in Japan is this group of "new Chinese", who then influence the old overseas Chinese who have been in Japan for 20 - 30 years, and then influence the mainstream Japanese society.

Currently, the biggest advantage of Temu is its low price, but the biggest problem is the mediocre product quality. For example, a sofa on Temu can cost as low as 3,000 yen (about 150 yuan), while on Amazon, it costs at least 10,000 yen (about 500 yuan). As a result, families, stores, and offices looking for low - cost products will choose Temu.

In a sense, the path of e - commerce development in the Chinese market cannot be completely replicated in Japan. Only some aspects have reference value.

Guo Xiruo, a Japanese beauty industry practitioner, said that some aspects of Japanese e - commerce can already achieve the effect of offline experience. "For example, when buying makeup, I don't know if the color is suitable for me or if it suits my skin tone and texture. Online, there are some SaaS solutions that allow consumers to try on virtually. For consumers who don't want to go out, this can meet some of their needs."

Japan is a slow - paced and developed country, which means that its e - commerce development method will be very different from that of China. The trend of e - commerce should find a balance between online and offline, between conservatism and development. In other words, the online method should be a supplement to the rich offline experience and an intelligent upgrade of some offline aspects, rather than just e - commerce.

Guo Xiruo also gave an example: "Currently, some interactive smart vending machines in Japan can also collect user data. For example, when users experience perfume products in front of the camera, the machine can determine which product is more suitable for the user. This is an intelligent direction. In addition, customizing makeup products through intelligent means is also an online intelligent supplement to offline consumption."

This may be the future form of Japanese consumption.

Epilogue:

The beauty of economic upward movement can be a kind of soaring enthusiasm, but it can also be a kind of blurred prosperity.

Market sentiment, the herd mentality, and the growth figures often make people ignore risks and forget the truth. In 1986, Daiichi Real Estate of Japan bought the Tiffany & Co. building in New York at a record - high price. At that time, the amount of real - estate investment by Japanese capital in the United States increased from $1.9 billion in 1985 to $16.5 billion in 1988. At that time, you could even buy land in Australia directly with yen.

Japan's once - glorious prosperity amazed the world. In the late 1980s, many people, including many Europeans and Americans, believed that "Japan is the future center of the world economy because the Japanese economic system is more superior than that of European and American countries."

At that time, several researchers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology